CONVERSATION WITH… Dr. Frank Luntz By Judie Jacobson Pollster analyzes presidential election Nov 12, 2004 - West Hartford native Dr. Frank Luntz is one of the most honored communication professionals in America today. Named one of "50 of America's most promising leaders aged 40 and under," by Time magazine, as well as one of the four "Top Research Minds" by Business Week, Luntz was winner of the coveted Washington Post "Crystal Ball" award for being the most accurate pundit in 1992. Luntz has conducted more than 1,000 surveys and focus groups for corporate and public affairs clients in 11 countries since forming The Luntz Research Companies in 1992. Currently the host of "America's Voices" on MSNBC, he pioneered the "Instant Response" focus group technique that was profiled on "60 Minutes" in 1998. He has been a guest on numerous talk shows, and served as a consultant to the award-winning NBC drama "The West Wing." His recurring segments on MSNBC/CNBC, "100 Days, 1000 Voices" won an Emmy Award in 2001. In 2004, he was a primary night and election night commentator for "Hardball." A graduate of Hall High School in West Hartford, Luntz received his bachelor's degree with honors in history and political science from the University of Pennsylvania, where he was named a Thouron Fellow. He received his Doctorate in Politics at the age of 25 from Oxford University. In the spring of 1993, he was named a Fellow at Harvard University's Institute of Politics, the second youngest individual ever to receive this honor. The Ledger asked the Republican pollster this week for his analysis of the impact of the American Jewish community on the recent presidential election. Q: In 2000, President Bush received 19% of the Jewish vote n in 2004, he received 25%. To what do you attribute this increase? A: To the President's strong support for Israel n but, more importantly, to his fight against terror. Jewish voters see the American fight against terror and the Israeli fight as one and the same. Also, they are no longer so focused on Israel that they don't consider other issues. Israel was important, but terrorism was crucial. Without 9-11 and the war in Iraq, Bush would have ended up with 20% of the Jewish vote. Because of 9-11 and Iraq, he ended up with 25%. Obviously, 25% is worse than almost any other subgroup in the population n and yet, it is also the largest percentage increase in the population since 1992. Only 11% voted for the Republican candidate in 1992 n that percentage has more than doubled. Q: Is it true that, as impressive as that increase is, the Republicans expected an even larger percentage of the Jewish vote? A: They were hoping for a larger percentage. But the fact of the matter is that it is impossible to get a Jewish woman over 55 to vote for a Republican presidential candidate. It doesn't matter what they do. O.J. is more likely to find the "real" killer of his wife than a Jewish woman over 55 is likely to vote for a Republican presidential candidate. The reason is that they are far more interested in the social agenda. Q: What segment or segments of the American Jewish population voted for Bush and are trending Republican? A: Young men offer the greatest potential for the GOP. Forty percent of Jewish men ages 18 to 49 voted for Bush. Also, the more religious you are the more likely you were to vote for Bush. More than two-thirds of Orthodox Jews voted for Bush, as well as 40% of Jews who attend synagogue weekly. I would bet that in West Hartford where I grew up, at least half of the small Orthodox community voted for Bush, whereas the members of the Reform temple Beth Israel (where Luntz was a member growing up), 85% cast votes for the loser. The Orthodox are not afraid of religious people of other faiths. They embrace religiosity. Q: Did an increase in Jews voting Republican help Bush in key states? A: This time, fully one-fourth of the Jewish population in Ohio and Florida voted for Bush. He increased his percentage of the Jewish vote in Florida by 6%. Only Hispanics increased their vote more than the Jewish vote. Still, the Jerusalem Post reported this as if it were a failure n suggesting that it was "only" 6%. It's a typical Jewish glass-is-half-empty attitude and it frustrates me. There is something about Jews that compels them to be defeatist and pessimistic and always look for the negative. If the average increase is 3.5% and Jews doubled that increase, wouldn't an unbiased observer say that that is a significant increase? But the Post had a pre-existing bias. They wanted to suggest that Jews did not contribute to the Bush victory. The percentage increase could have been 35% and they still would have said it should have been higher. The fact of the matter is that in 1992, the Republican candidate received 11% of the Jewish vote; in 1996, that increased to 16%; in 2000, it increased to 16%; in 2000, to 19%; in 2004, to 25%. The increase in Jews voting Republican is the most significant trend of any segment of the American population. The Hispanic vote represented a surge for Bush in 2004 n but the increase in the Jewish vote is a continuing trend. Q: If you were to give the Democrats advice on how to stem the tide and win back the Jewish vote, what would you say? A: I would tell them to continue to do what they have been doing. Scare Jewish about the social agenda. Talk about appointments to the Supreme Court, about the issue of abortion, about prayer in the public schools. Try to frighten Jews into voting Democratic by using the social agenda. Q: Would you like to make a prediction regarding who the Republican candidate might be in 2008? A: I wouldn't be surprised if it were Rudy Giuliani. If he did, the Jewish vote for him could go as high as 40%. But even with Rudy, half of Jewish voters won't vote Republican. That tells you something about all the mishigas in the Jewish community. Here's a guy who is pro-choice, pro-gun control, etc. He agrees with Jews on all the social issues and he is incredibly supportive of Israel. He was the only speaker at either convention to mention Israel several times n and not just in passing. That was something no candidate has ever done. Israel was a significant component of his speech…and older Jews still won't vote for him. If he is the candidate, I would hope that the Jewish community would embrace him for all he has said and all he has done. But too many Jews did not embrace George Bush n so who knows? Comments? Email judiejacobson@jewishledger.com