Jim Geraghty of National Review Online presented the following musings about “Iran, Israel and nukes” (Jan. 23).
He looks at the news that Israel is preparing their military options and can’t come up with a scenario that “doesn’t end in horrific bloodshed” and measures some of the potential outcomes in the current situation.
Iran’s new nuclear capability engenders an Israeli response.
One that is being bandied about is that Israel “hit(s) Iran with everything it has, short of nukes, to eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons.”
It would have to deal with many targets, make many bombing runs and cause and sustain many casualties. The Arab world would be watching, and Al-Jazeera would be the world’s eyes.
Iran then responds and could “hit Israel with everything they have, including every long-range missile.” Would they aim at Tel Aviv? Haifa? Geraghty wonders if Ahmadinejad’s comments might be interpreted as baiting Israel into that first strike. Iran’s leader certainly has been “provocative” and “over the top.” Does this mean we witness a “Second Holocaust” this time in Israel? Will the world care? Especially when oil prices move to levels that makes today’s $65-$70 a barrel look really cheap?
And then there is the U.S. exposure in the Gulf area- a place where we have some of our most elite armed forces and arguably our best and brightest.
“Since the Iranians view the U.S. as culpable for Israeli actions, it seems likely they would be inclined to hit U.S. forces in Iraq, as well as attempts to hit whatever naval forces we have in the Persian Gulf. It also seems likely that Iran will be encouraging terrorist allies to hit American targets around the world,” says Geraghty.
It’s hard to imagine that the U.S. would not be drawn in it at this point if we weren’t provoked enough before this. No doubt too, the world economy will not be anything resembling what anyone alive knows or remembers. Much of the world will be affected.
In all of this we have to remember who we are dealing with here-martyrs in search of martyrdom armed with nuclear weapons is truly a worst-case scenario for the world.
Geraghty tells us that we don’t weigh these things fully because we can’t imagine them. He then says that he hopes he is “really, really wrong.” As do we.

–nrg

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